The world hasn’t seen the last of Doug Schoen. AP reports that the disgraced pollster is picking up some big-name clients, including New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg.
For many years, Schoen has been traveling the world setting up phony exit polls in developing nations to discredit candidates opposed by the United States. He was the tool behind the undemocratic takeovers in Serbia and the Ukraine, and was recently stopped in his tracks attempting a similar coup in Venezuela.
Here’s how it works: The U.S. pours millions of dollars into localized “social movements” who float the idea to the press and the international community that upcoming elections will be rigged. Pre-election polling conducted by Mr. Schoen shows that the current president is widely unpopular. On election day, his exit polls mysteriously portray the incumbent losing by a wide margin. When the official tallies give the opposite outcome, opposition groups hit the streets to decry the “fraud,” creating chaos and civil strife. The ensuing violence sets the stage for an armed takeover of government, and a new leader, more in step with U.S. interests, is installed.
This was all working just dandy for Mr. Schoen and his buddies at Penn, Schoen and Berland, until earlier this month, when the firm’s rep began to take a beating in the press. In the leadup to the Venezuelan presidential elections, mainstream media outlets simply stopped citing Penn, Schoen and Berland polling data, as it was incredibly out of sync with reputable polling firms like Zogby and Evans McDonough, which accurately portrayed Chavez’s enormous margin.
Perhaps reporters learned their lesson after the 2004 recall referendum, when President Jimmy Carter criticized the firm’s tactics of illegally releasing ridiculous exit polls early, in violation of elections laws. But the big blow came a couple days before the election, when Washington Post political gossip columnist Al Kamen ran this snotty little dig at the firm:
…back in August 2004, during a presidential recall referendum, Penn, Schoen & Berland Associates, using exit polls, hailed a major victory for anti-Chavez forces. Hours before the voting was over, the pollsters said exit polls showed 59 percent in favor of recalling Chavez. The actual votes, certified by all manner of independent groups -- former president Jimmy Carter, the Organization of American States, the European Union -- came out just the opposite, with Chavez crushing the opposition and getting 59 percent of the vote. (Well, they got the 59 right.)Penn, Schoen folks indicated they thought the voting, not their polling, was flawed. That inflamed Chavez's opposition, which claimed election fraud. Things were tense there for a while.
On to this election. The Associated Press last week found Chavez up by 32 points. Zogby showed him up 29. Penn, Schoen, which does a lot of work for the Clintons, on Nov. 15 also had Chavez up, but only by six points, with indications he was "vulnerable" and the race was tightening. Stay tuned.
Two days later, on the morning of the election, the Miami Herald ran a fascinating piece explaining that Mr. Schoen had “retired” in the middle of the night, and that firm partner Mark Penn was taking over its Venezuela activities.
Penn, Schoen & Berland, (PSB) a Washington firm that has been polling during the campaign and will be conducting exit polls for opposition candidate Manuel Rosales, confirmed that Mark Penn and not Doug Schoen will lead its team here.Two members of Rosales' team, who spoke on condition of anonymity because they are not authorized to speak on the record, expressed surprise over the sudden change in managers and weren't sure how it would affect polling.
Another Rosales advisor, Diego Arria, said there was no turmoil and that Schoen was ``retiring."
Surprise surprise. For the first time in its history, the Penn & Schoen exit polls were consistent with the results of other firms, confirming Chavez’s 26-point victory. Perhaps Mark Penn was trying to salvage his reputation before the 2008 US election cycle, as he stands to make a fortune as Hillary Clinton’s chief pollster. Kudos to you, Mr. Credibility. Still, in the Post, Kamen couldn’t resist a little parting jab:
The Great Venezuela Polling Wars are over, for now. Incumbent President Hugo Chávez crushed his opponent 63 percent to 37 percent to win another six-year term. So which pollsters predicted a 26-point victory? Two Venezuelan firms predicted 27-point spreads, Zogby weighed in at 29, and the Associated Press at 32. Evans McDonough came in a bit low at 22.And Penn, Schoen & Berland, which is Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton's pollster? It recently had Chávez ahead by about six points with his opponent, Manuel Rosales, closing. "This is a very close race, with what appears to be an evenly divided electorate," Douglas Schoen told the Washington Times just before Sunday's election.
So how to explain the much-anticipated Chávez landslide? "In the closing days," Schoen partner Mark Penn said, "it appears that Chávez consolidated the undecided voters."
Ah, yes. That must be it.
It looks like Mayor Bloomberg isn’t quite so concerned about accuracy as his fellow New Yorker. Sometimes all that matters is results.
